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| Duration: | 00:36 |
| Uploaded: | 2022-09-21 |
| Last sync: | 2023-05-27 05:00 |
Hosted by: Savannah Geary (they/them)
Emma Dauster: Writer
Kyle Nackers: Fact Checker
Savannah Geary: Editor, Associate Producer
Sarah Suta: Producer
Caitlin Hofmeister: Executive Producer
Hank Green: Executive Producer
Source:
https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/croson.pdf
Image Sources:
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/roulette-in-a-casino-stock-footage/1353881577?adppopup=true
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/top-view-of-a-group-of-men-and-women-betting-with-chips-stock-footage/1322372579?adppopup=true
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/classic-roulette-spinning-wheel-white-ball-on-black-stock-footage/507741756?adppopup=true
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/gambling-table-roulette-wheel-and-bet-with-different-stock-footage/1341920519
Emma Dauster: Writer
Kyle Nackers: Fact Checker
Savannah Geary: Editor, Associate Producer
Sarah Suta: Producer
Caitlin Hofmeister: Executive Producer
Hank Green: Executive Producer
Source:
https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/croson.pdf
Image Sources:
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/roulette-in-a-casino-stock-footage/1353881577?adppopup=true
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/top-view-of-a-group-of-men-and-women-betting-with-chips-stock-footage/1322372579?adppopup=true
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/classic-roulette-spinning-wheel-white-ball-on-black-stock-footage/507741756?adppopup=true
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/gambling-table-roulette-wheel-and-bet-with-different-stock-footage/1341920519
You lost 6 games in a row but you're due for a win, right? Wrong. You've fallen for the gambler's fallacy, or faulty reasoning, but you are not alone.
At a roulette table in Nevada, when a losing streak lasted for 5 games, about 65% of the players started betting based on this fallacy. By the time the streak had made it to six games, the fallacy had taken 85% of players. But they still don't win because in roulette, whether they win or lose the next game has nothing to do with whether they won the last game.
If, for example, a red couldn't win next time because it won last time, they would be right on the money. But in roulette, each possibility is still a viable option in the next game regardless of what won the last game.
So they're applying the right logic to the wrong situation.
At a roulette table in Nevada, when a losing streak lasted for 5 games, about 65% of the players started betting based on this fallacy. By the time the streak had made it to six games, the fallacy had taken 85% of players. But they still don't win because in roulette, whether they win or lose the next game has nothing to do with whether they won the last game.
If, for example, a red couldn't win next time because it won last time, they would be right on the money. But in roulette, each possibility is still a viable option in the next game regardless of what won the last game.
So they're applying the right logic to the wrong situation.