Good morning, Hank. It's Tuesday.

So to understand the unfolding catastrophe in Ukraine, I think it's really important to have some historical and political context. 

First, a quick snapshot of Ukraine: it is the second-largest country in Europe by area and at least as of three weeks ago, it was home to over 40 million people. The national languages are Ukrainian, which is the first language of about 2/3 of Ukrainians, and also Russian, which is the first language of about 30% of Ukrainians. Russian is most commonly spoken in the east and the south of the country, but gentle reminder that language is not nationality. 

Ukrainian history and cultural identity stretches back a very long time, but its history as a nation-state really begins, like a lot of countries, in World War I. Beginning in 1917, Ukraine was, for a time, an independent nation called the Ukrainian People's Republic, which had this flag and was seen as the forerunner of modern Ukraine, which has this flag.

But, like, the borders and even the existence of this new county were always contested. From 1917 to 1921 there was a war between the Ukrainian People's Republic and the Bolsheviks, who were just coming to power in Russia. And in January of 1919, just after the end of World War I, the Bolsheviks invaded Ukraine in full force, and eventually defeated the Ukrainian People's Republic (among other factions, wars are complicated), and Ukraine became one of the Soviet Socialist Republics, of the new Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

One of the generals who led that Bolshevik invasion of Ukraine was Joseph Stalin, who cemented himself as leader of the Soviet Union in 1929. Stalin wanted to crush any Ukrainian independence movements, which for him also meant discouraging Ukrainian language and cultural identity through a variety of strategies, many of them horrific, but we're going to focus today on just two Stalin policies that continue to reverberate. 

First, the Holodomor, as it is known in Ukrainian. In 1932 and 1933, millions of Ukrainians starved to death because of Stalin's agricultural policies, wherein food was taken from Ukrainian homes and Ukrainian fields and sent elsewhere in the Soviet Union, especially to industrial centers. This period is sometimes known in English as the Terror Famine, to emphasize that it was not the result of blight or weather, but of human choice.

So to be clear, the Stalin regime knew what it was doing. These policies were designed to punish Ukrainian peasant farmers who were seen to be resistant to Stalin's ideal of the Soviet Union. It is hard to overstate the horrors of the Holodomor. Perhaps one out of every eight Ukrainians died in a two-year period. 

Another Stalin policy that continues to reverberate was forced deportation. So because Stalin wanted to discourage independence movements, he forcibly moved millions of people. Almost the entire indigenous population of Tatar people were forcibly deported from their home in the Crimean Peninsula. Many Ukrainians were forced to leave Ukraine, including from prison camps in Syberia, and many Russian people were moved against their will to various areas of the Soviet Union as well, including Ukraine. This had a significant, lasting effect on the ethnic, cultural, and linguistic makeup of a huge swath of Eurasia, from Lithuania to Kazakhstan. And it's worth noting that many Ukrainians today feel there are parallels between that Stalin-era policy and what the Putin regime is doing right now.

So Putin has repeatedly attacked these humanitarian corridors people are trying to set up to allow safe passage of civilians from besieged cities into western Ukraine or other countries in Europe, but Putin has said, "I will guarantee your safety if you come to Russia." Basically saying "you can't stay safely in Ukraine, and you can't go west, but you can come to Russia," which feels to a lot of people fairly close to forced movement. 

Okay, let's move ahead to 1991, when the Soviet Union is breaking up. Ukraine holds a referendum to vote on whether to become an independent nation, and 92% of people vote for independence. In every region of Ukraine, a majority of people vote for independence. And as a result, for the last 30 years, Ukraine has been a globally-recognized independent nation. Now it has not always gone great, as I explored in my previous video about Ukraine, but also, independence is complicated in a global world, especially when the name of your country literally means "borderlands," as Ukraine does. 

Partly due to cultural and historical connections, like millions of Ukrainian people have family in Russia, and partly because of economic necessity, Ukraine has had to maintain somewhat close ties with Russia, while also trying to remain, you know, a country. Economically, Ukraine has been in a complicated relationship with Russia for the same reason the rest of Europe has been, which is that Russia has a lot of oil and natural gas. Like fossil fuels amounted to about 60% of Russia's exports in 2019. That figure is similar to, like, Iran or the UAE. And Ukraine has been very reliant on imports of Russian energy sources, not least because at times those imports have been heavily subsidized by Russia to try to curry favor and influence in Ukraine. 

But here's where we arrive at the crux of the matter. For a country like Ukraine, it is really difficult to have a good relationship with Russia because Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin, has long maintained that Ukraine should never have existed. I said earlier that for the last 30 years Ukraine has been a globally-recognized independent nation, but I realized now that's not quite true, because there is one place where Ukraine is not recognized as an independent nation, which is inside of Vladimir Putin's head.

Putin, who has directly or indirectly been the leader of Russia for over 20 years, does not view Ukraine as a legitimate nation, and that's not, like, an accusation, it's a statement of fact. Putin has written repeatedly that he believes Ukraine is lacking in "real statehood," and that Ukraine "was created entirely by Russia." He thinks all Ukrainians should speak Russian and understand themselves to be part of "what has historically been Russian land."

So despite whatever the talking points are in Putin-friendly media, Putin himself has repeatedly acknowledged exactly what this war is about: he does not believe Ukraine is a legitimate nation, and he believes, quote, "the true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible" only in partnership with Russia. This is certainly not about, as some have claimed, the protection of Ukrainians who speak Russian as their first language; in fact, in the first two weeks of the war, thousands of such civilians have been killed by Putin's regime. It is not about de-Nazification of Ukraine, a nation with a democratically-elected Jewish president. And while I don't doubt that Putin feels pressure from the NATO military alliance and I don't want to minimize the complexities there, I simply don't think it makes Russia more safe to have Russian soldiers closer to NATO missiles. 

Again, this is primarily about what Putin has said it's about; he believes that when the borders of Ukraine were drawn, "Russia was robbed." And he is seeking to rectify that perceived injustice through violence, including the mass killing of civilians, and the destruction of infrastructure that serves them. I mean, just before the invasion, Putin addressed Ukraine by saying, "Whether you like it or not, take it, my darling," which was widely recognized to be a quote from a song about sexually assaulting a corpse. Vladimir Putin told the world what he was going to do, and now he is doing it. 

I made a video about Ukraine eight years ago that ended, "The arc of history is long. Let's hope it bends toward peace." That was tragically naive. I don't know how this war will end, only that it has already caused tremendous suffering; less than three weeks into the Putin regime's invasion of Ukraine, millions of people have been forced to flee their homes and thousands have been killed, including many children.

I hope there is some way forward other than more suffering, but I don't know what it is. What I do know is that no war will crush Ukrainian identity or language. When I made a TikTok about Ukraine recently, a young person commented, "As a Ukrainian, I would like to add one thing, that I recently understood myself: Ukraine became Ukraine by never giving up on fighting for its freedom." And that's a good reminder that this war is not about east versus west or whatever, it is about the right of Ukraine and its people to exist in freedom and independence. 

Putin doesn't believe Ukraine has that right, but he is mistaken. Ukraine doesn't need to be a Russia-friendly country, or a Europe-friendly country, it should be able to be its own country, to make its own choices, secure in the knowledge that its borders and sovereignty are protected. I believe that day will come, but I fear for every day until it does. 

Hank, I'll see you on Friday.